What are the current odds for Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk??

Manifold Markets prices No at 97.6% as of October 29, 2026.

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 97.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Sep 11, 25, 5:08 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 6:00 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves Yes if the US government declares an official day of remembrance of Charlie Kirk before the 2026 midterm elections.

The holiday must be an annual event, not a one-time ceremony, but it does not need to include time off from work.
If an existing holiday is rebranded to be about Charlie Kirk, that will also count for Yes.
A new holiday or rebrand that does not mention Charlie Kirk by name will need to explicitly mention him in its announcement as central to its theme and meaning.
State and local holidays will not count; only an act of congress or the Trump administration will suffice.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.