LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Lula da Silva <5% 40.5%Leader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:36 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
Rules
Lula da Silva 5-10% · Lula da Silva 10-15% · Lula da Silva A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Lula da Silva <5% is 44%. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Lula da Silva <5% 44% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva <5% 43%
- Also available on Kalshi — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva, 0-5% 47%
