KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 13% (98%)
Resolved: Sep 19, 2026, 3:35 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
At least 13%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 19, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
At least 17%99%
At least 21%1%
At least 18%94%
At least 13%98%
At least 15%97%
At least 16%95%
At least 19%99%
At least 17%Lost
At least 19%Lost
At least 13%Won
At least 15%Lost
At least 16%Lost
At least 18%Lost
At least 21%Lost
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Moderate Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 13% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Swedish Election Authority
- The percentage is the share of the vote received by the Moderate Party in the election to the Riksdag.
- It is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places.
- Resolution uses Valmyndigheten's final certified result, NOT the preliminary count published on election night or the ongoing count in the days that follow Only the election to the Riksdag counts.
- Votes cast in the regional and municipal elections held the same day do NOT count Invalid, spoiled, blank and rejected ballots are excluded from the denominator
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Moderate Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.