KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 2% · —
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Stored price
At least 4.5% 51%Market line of 9 lines
At least 4.5% 51%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$65.2
Low open interestBid / Ask
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At least 2%Spread
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Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 11:30 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 2%
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Rules
If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party). A minor party whose registered name contains the word "Independent" (for example, the Alaskan Independence Party) qualifies. Candidates recorded as Independent, Unaffiliated, Nonaffiliated, Nonpartisan, Undeclared, No Party, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, or under any other non-party or petition label do not qualify. A candidate who is also the Democratic or Republican nominee does not qualify. A candidate nominated only by one or more qualifying parties qualifies, and their votes across all such lines are combined. All U.S. Senate general elections held on November 3, 2026 are in scope, including special elections. Each qualifying candidate's figure is their share of all votes cast for that seat as certified by the relevant state election authority; in a ranked-choice contest, the first-round share is used. The market resolves on the single highest such certified share across all contests.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 2%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 2% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4.5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 6% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 8%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 8% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 10%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 10% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 12% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 14%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 14% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
