KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 8.2% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 9:35 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
7.6%27%
Below 7.6%5%
7.7%9%
7.9%12%
7.8%3%
8.0%48%
Above 8.2%99%
8.2%1%
8.1%1%
Above 8.2%Won
8.1%Lost
7.6%Lost
Below 7.6%Lost
7.7%Lost
7.9%Lost
7.8%Lost
8.0%Lost
8.2%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Generic congressional ballot on election day 2026? (More buckets)
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiTexas Senate Election Winner
PolymarketOhio Governor winner?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.2% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:VoteHub
Rules for each outcome
- Above 8.2%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.2% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 8.1%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.1% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.6%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.6% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 7.6%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is below 7.6% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.7%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.7% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.9%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.9% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 7.8%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.8% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 8.0%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.0% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 8.2%
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.2% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.