KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Eduardo Paes 92.4%Leader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Apr 25, 26, 2:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
If the named outcome wins the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Eduardo Paes is 92%. Quotes span about 24 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Eduardo Paes 92% · 4 venues · 24 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner · Eduardo Paes 93%
- Also available on Limitless — Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner · Eduardo Paes 93%
- Also available on Futuur — Elected Governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2026 · Eduardo Paes 72%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Rio de Janeiro Governor winner??
- Kalshi prices Eduardo Paes at 92% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? resolve?
- Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless, Futuur.