KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 45%
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 12.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
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KalshiWill the US recognize Somaliland before 2028?
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PolymarketRules
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:White House
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.
- Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump recognize Somaliland??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 20, 2029 at 45% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will Trump recognize Somaliland? resolve?
- Will Trump recognize Somaliland? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump recognize Somaliland? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.