KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 20, 2029 50%-9.0pt
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$379
Liquidity
$7.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 51.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Dec 18, 24, 3:00 PMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 20, 202950%
Rules
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
- Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.