PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 90%+0.9pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.6
Liquidity
$14.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.3% / 9.8%
Spread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
18
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Dec 26, 25, 7:41 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
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KalshiWill Ethiopia recognize Somaliland before the video game Grand Theft Auto 6 is released?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Somaliland before 2028?
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify.
- Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? resolve?
- Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.