Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Ra'am win?
36.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection15d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above 4 · —
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Stored price
Above 5 55.5%Market line of 6 lines
Above 5 55.5%Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$585.5
Open interest
$265
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 4Spread
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Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 11, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 4
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KalshiMexico 2027 Chamber of Deputies Legislative Election Winner
Manifold MarketsIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
PolymarketRules
If Ra'am has won above 5 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Central Elections Committee
- If Ra'am runs in this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by that list will be counted. If Ra'am merges with another party before the election, all seats won by the merged party will be counted, as will any seats won by a joint candidate list the merged party runs on. Ra'am refers to the party led by Mansour Abbas at issuance. A name change alone does not change its identity. If neither Ra'am nor a qualifying joint list or merged successor contests the election, its seat count is zero. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4
- If Ra'am has won above 4 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3
- If Ra'am has won above 3 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7
- If Ra'am has won above 7 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8
- If Ra'am has won above 8 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5
- If Ra'am has won above 5 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6
- If Ra'am has won above 6 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.