Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
5.0% (24h)YearlyPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityPortland 19%+5.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.9
Liquidity
$5.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 19.0%
Spread
35.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Portland19%
Volume trend
$6Jul 223d of dataJul 26
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If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
- The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
- - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
- The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
- - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize