New Mexico Senate margin of victory
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionLatin America2026 US Midterms1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Luján, 13+ pts · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Luján, 21+ pts 47.5%Market line of 12 lines
Luján, 21+ pts 47.5%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$74
Open interest
$4.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Luján, 13+ ptsSpread
—
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 28, 26, 1:03 AM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Luján, 13+ pts
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:New Mexico Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Rules for each outcome
- Luján, 13+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 9+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 11+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 15+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 17+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 19+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 21+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 23+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 27+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 25+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 29+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 29 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Luján, 31+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by 31 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
