KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 25 41%+2.0ptMarket line of 11 lines
Above 25 41%+2.0ptMarket quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.4K
Open interest
$24.9K
Medium open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 4:30 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiOn October 25th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
PolymarketFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 10
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 15
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 20
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 25
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 30
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 35
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 35 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 40
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 45
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 45 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 50
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 75
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 75 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 100
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.