KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 6 51%Market line of 6 lines
Above 6 51%Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$26.3K
Open interest
$9.4K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 5:00 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiOn October 25th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
PolymarketFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 12
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 12 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 14
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 14 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.