Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)
Middle EastOne-OffTrade PolicyGeopoliticsCommodities10d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4 92%Leader of 6 outcomes
Above 4 92%Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$1.7K
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 25, 26, 5:00 PM UTCOct 6, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27)
KalshiOn September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
