How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least $1 billion · —
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Stored price
At least $1 billion 5.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
At least $1 billion 5.5%Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$35.2K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least $1 billionSpread
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Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Aug 14, 26, 2:30 PM UTCMar 31, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least $1 billion
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWhat will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
PolymarketWill the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?
Manifold MarketsRules
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.
Rules for each outcome
- At least $1 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 50 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 150 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $150 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 500 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $500 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2 trillion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $2000 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 250 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $250 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 750 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $750 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 100 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $100 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1 trillion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1000 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 200 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $200 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.