How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?
86.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least $1 billion 12%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$38.7
Liquidity
$34.7K
High liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 3:00 PM UTCMar 31, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
PolymarketWill Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
KalshiWill the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
KalshiMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
PolymarketTom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?
PolymarketRules
If government spending (FGEXPND) is the named outcome below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $100 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $150 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $200 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends??
- Kalshi prices At least $1 billion at 12% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? resolve?
- How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2029.
- How is How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If government spending (FGEXPND) is the named outcome below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.