Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.4%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 25, 10:21 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves Yes if Nate Silver's aggregator currently sited here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin ever shows Donald Trump's current approval rating as 47.0% or higher between now and when he ends his second presidential term for any reason.
- Otherwise, if Trump dies, is successfully removed via impeachment, or ends his second term for any reason, this market will resolve No once any pending polls are added.
- The spirit of this market pertains to actual approval of Trump's actual legal term, so if his second term is extended via autocratic action or if postmortem polls are added for some glitchy/negligent reason, the market will have already resolved and will stay resolved.
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