How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
0.2 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 50 billion · —
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Stored price
At least 50 billion 4.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
At least 50 billion 4.7%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$276
Open interest
$83.3K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 50 billionSpread
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Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 6, 26, 9:30 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 50 billion
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?
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KalshiWhat will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2026?
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PolymarketWill Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketHow many government employees will Trump cut?
KalshiRules
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
Settles via:FRED
Rules for each outcome
- At least 50 billion
- If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
- At least 250 billion
- If government spending decreases by at least 250 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2 trillion
- If government spending decreases by at least 2000 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1 trillion
- If government spending decreases by at least 1000 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 750 billion
- If government spending decreases by at least 750 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 500 billion
- If government spending decreases by at least 500 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.