PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 84.2%
Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$321.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 20.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will long-term capital gains tax rate (federal) be increased in the US by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTrump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by which date?
Polymarket🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2027? (USA)
Manifold MarketsWill federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
KalshiFederal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
- The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
- Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $829.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $343.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? resolve?
- Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.