KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$436.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 12:46 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains.
- Legislation qualifies if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, whether through a rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, a change in applicable thresholds, a change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism.
- Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer’s overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, do not qualify.
- A qualifying change may be temporary and need not take effect before the specified deadline, provided the legislation becomes law within the specified time period.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? resolve?
- Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.