KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 0%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
20.0% / 30.0%
Spread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is James fishback a stunt?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:James FishbackThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
- The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-5.0pt72%
- Yes+5.0pt28%
- Total Vol
- $16.6M
- 24h Vol
- $875.5K
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- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt48.1%
- D-House, R-Senate34.6%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.4%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+19.0pt63%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+14.0pt54%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+16.0pt52%
+7 more outcomes
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- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217.2M
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva46.1%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.5pt36.1%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt27.8%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will James Fishback announce a run for public office??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 0% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? resolve?
- Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will James Fishback announce a run for public office? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.