KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jul 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jul 1, 2027 57%
Before Jul 1, 2027 57%Market quality
19 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$25.4
Open interest
$1.4K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jul 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 10, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jul 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is James fishback a stunt?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for public office in 2026?
KalshiWill Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
PolymarketWill Hasan Piker announce a run for public office?
KalshiWill James Fishback have to pay his lawyers?
Manifold Marketswill Jimmy Kimmel run for any public office before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:James FishbackThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. The announcement may concern any government office in any election year.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.