Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 9:11 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 8:10 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?
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KalshiRules
Resolves Yes if before end of 2026 it is revealed James fishback did the campaign to see how stupid /anti semitic/racist conservatives are.
- If he announced it was a stunt to see which conservatives would support him.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHIBlanchet vs Harris
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- Billy Harris21.8%
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
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- No-5.0pt70.3%
- Yes+5.0pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $16.6M
- 24h Vol
- $905.5K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt48.1%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt34.6%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.4%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.8pt18%
- Jon Ossoff-0.4pt15%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt13%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change60.8%
- 25 bps increase-1.0pt36.3%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.7pt65%
- October 31+1.0pt37%
- September 30+0.5pt17%
+17 more outcomes
- Rennes: Ugo Blanchet vs Billy Harris
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- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing?
- California Governor winner? (Person)
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is James fishback a stunt??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Is James fishback a stunt? resolve?
- Is James fishback a stunt? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Is James fishback a stunt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if before end of 2026 it is revealed James fishback did the campaign to see how stupid /anti semitic/racist conservatives are.