Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
6.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityGavin Newsom 22.2%-3.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$22.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 14.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Sep 16, 25, 9:00 PMNov 7, 28, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Josh Shapiro11%
Volume trend
$2.4kJul 217d of dataJul 28
Related Markets
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
$0Gavin Newsom: 23%KALSHI
KALSHI
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$465.3KJD Vance: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
$268.4KAt least 1%: 95%KALSHI
KALSHI
2028 Republican presidential nominee
$230.1KDonald J. Trump: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
$32.6KByron Donalds: 97%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
$30.5KAbdul El-Sayed: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRules
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
- The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
- Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
- The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.