Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Pete Buttigieg · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Pete Buttigieg 29.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Pete Buttigieg 29.5%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$56.2K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Pete ButtigiegSpread
—
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingSep 16, 25, 9:00 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Pete Buttigieg
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
KalshiWho will announce Presidential run before 2028?
PolymarketWho will announce Presidential run before 2027?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
PolymarketWill Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run?
KalshiRules
If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:personthe Federal Election CommissionBallotpediaThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalPoliticoAxiosCNNABCCBSFox NewsMSNBCNBCofficial campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates
- A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
Rules for each outcome
- Pete Buttigieg
- If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Andy Beshear
- If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Gavin Newsom
- If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kamala Harris
- If Kamala Harris is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- J.B. Pritzker
- If J.B. Pritzker is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Jon Ossoff
- If Jon Ossoff is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Wes Moore
- If Wes Moore is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Josh Shapiro
- If Josh Shapiro is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Gretchen Whitmer
- If Gretchen Whitmer is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.