Economy | Mercados de Predicción

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%17d

Above 3.0%

-5.0%92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total542,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h10,6 mil US$

KALSHI

CPI in July

1.0%17d

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

-7.0%88%

+7 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total277,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h5,6 mil US$

KALSHI

Recession this year?

1.0%6m

89%

Sí

-1.0%11%

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total2,9 M US$

Volumen 24h3,5 mil US$

KALSHI

2026: Trump's dream year?

95%

Sí

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total524,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h2 mil US$

KALSHI

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

1.0%4d

Above 0.0%

99%

Above 1.0%

+1.0%95%

Above 0.5%

93%

+6 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithm1.5–2.0%35%· ±1 pts

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total189,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,1 mil US$

KALSHI

Unemployment in July

3.0%12d

Above 3.7%

98%

Above 3.8%

98%

Above 3.9%

97%

+11 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total69,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,5 mil US$

KALSHI

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

2.8%7m

Sí

+2.8%90%

10%

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total31,4 M US$

Volumen 24h188,4 US$

KALSHI

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0%1a

79%

Sí

+2.0%21%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total25,9 M US$

Volumen 24h147 US$

KALSHI

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

18.9%6m

0-1%

-4.5%56%

1-2%

+18.9%39%

-5.5%5%

+4 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total57,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,4 mil US$

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3.5%6m

Soft Landing

+3.5%62%

Overheating

24%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

79 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total55,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

4.0%12d

Above -25,000

96%

Above 0

93%

Above 10,000

-1.0%91%

+10 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total61,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h583,1 US$

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5m

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±0 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total51,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,1 mil US$

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

0.8%5m

Above 4.5%

44%

Above 4.8%

17%

Above 5%

+0.8%10%

+11 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total697,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h117,7 US$

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17d

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total68,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h498,7 US$

KALSHI

US recession by end of 2026?

0.5%6m

88%

Sí

+0.0%12%

Referencia CoinRithm12%· ±1 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total1,7 M US$

Volumen 24h382,1 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

57%

Sí

43%

Pronóstico comunitario347 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

17.0%3m

3.0–3.4%

+17.0%43%

2.5–2.9%

-7.0%22%

2.0–2.4%

-13.0%14%

+5 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

0.7%3d

1.5-2.0%

-5.5%38%

1.0-1.5%

-3.5%31%

2.0-2.5%

+3.4%27%

+5 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total31,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h564,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2.0%2m

53%

Sí

-2.0%47%

Referencia CoinRithm47%· ±0 pts

83 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total51,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h165,5 US$

KALSHI

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

2.0%6m

0-1.0%

71%

1.0-2.0%

+0.5%16%

<0%

-2.0%9%

+6 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total25,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h233,3 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Sí

97.4%

2.6%

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

2.0%12d

Exactly 4.3%

-2.0%38%

Exactly 4.2%

-2.0%29%

Exactly 4.4%

14%

+20 resultados más

60 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total40 mil US$

Volumen 24h162 US$

KALSHI

Russia Nominal GDP in 2026

2.4%8m

Above $2.2 trillion

99%

Above $2.3 trillion

-2.4%92%

Above $2.4 trillion

79%

+9 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total5,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h354 US$

KALSHI

Unemployment in August

4.0%1m

Above 4.9%

97%

Above 4.0%

+7.0%93%

Above 3.9%

90%

+11 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total6,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h282 US$

KALSHI

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

0.5%2m

4.3-4.6%

+1.5%45%

4.6-4.9%

-0.5%38%

4.0-4.3%

-1.0%12%

+6 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total8,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h169,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

94.3%

Sí

5.7%

Pronóstico comunitario48 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next US recession start?

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q4 2024

+3 resultados más

49 • Baja calidadSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total514,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in 2026?

1.6% to 2.0%

26%

2.1% to 2.5%

24%

2.6% to 3.0%

15%

+11 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total274,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h0,6 US$

KALSHI

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

13a

63%

Sí

37%

Pronóstico comunitario22 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Other

+3.0%25.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

-0.4%11.4%

NVIDIA (NVDA)

-0.4%10.3%

+11 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Recession in Australia in 2026?

81.2%

Sí

18.8%

Pronóstico comunitario28 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

96.9%

Sí

3.1%

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

72.2%

Sí

27.8%

Pronóstico comunitario10 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

83.7%

Sí

16.3%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Shutdown & Democratic

86%

Shutdown & Republican

13%

No Shutdown & Democratic

-1.8%0%

+2 resultados más

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total329 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,2 US$

POLYMARKET

2026: Trump's bad year?

3.0%1a

88%

Sí

-3.0%12%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total213,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h5 US$

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

60%

Sí

40%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total72,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h81,2 US$

KALSHI

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

0.1%2a

70%

Sí

-0.1%30%

83 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total171 mil US$

Volumen 24h14 US$

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

1.0%3m

Above 3.7%

-1.0%92%

Above 3.8%

-4.0%87%

Above 3.9%

79%

+11 resultados más

60 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total9,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h168 US$

KALSHI

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Japan

19%

United Kingdom

India

+1 resultados más

49 • Baja calidadSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total166,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

KALSHI

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

3.0%3a

84%

Sí

-3.0%16%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total122,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h4 US$

KALSHI

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

75.6%

Sí

24.4%

Pronóstico comunitario40 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

95.7%

Sí

4.3%

Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

87.7%

Sí

12.3%

Pronóstico comunitario49 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

1.0%2m

Exactly 4.4%

17%

Exactly 4.3%

10%

Exactly 4.5%

10%

+20 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total3,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h100 US$

KALSHI

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Sí

91.2%

8.8%

Pronóstico comunitario19 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Unemployment in November

8.0%4m

Above 3.7%

91%

Above 3.8%

91%

Above 3.9%

85%

+11 resultados más

28 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total3 mil US$

Volumen 24h126 US$

KALSHI

Economía

Criptoactivos Relacionados

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

Recession this year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Unemployment in July

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

US recession by end of 2026?

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Will the national debt surpass 40 trillion during Trumps presidency?

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?

Russia Nominal GDP in 2026

Unemployment in August

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

When will the next US recession start?

US real GDP growth in 2026?

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Recession in Australia in 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

2026: Trump's bad year?

Recession in 2027?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Unemployment in October

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?

Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Unemployment in November

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?