PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualSí 20%+0.0%
Calidad del mercado
80 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
3,2 mil €
Liquidez
24,5 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Spread moderadoCambio 7d
+1.0%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
29 sept 25, 22:2931 ene 27, 0:00
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
Yes20%
También disponible en Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7m
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total2,9 mil €
Volumen 24h0 €
LIMITLESSReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Activos Sensibles al Macro
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Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".