KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
No 96%
Calidad del mercado
85 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
2,5 mil €
Liquidez
768,7 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
14 jul 25, 14:00 UTC31 ene 27, 13:25 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 91 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 569,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 47,4 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 359,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 16,4 mil €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 314,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,5 mil €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Recession this year??
- Kalshi cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Recession this year??
- Está previsto que Recession this year? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Recession this year??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.