KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
No 76%
Calidad del mercado
84 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
9,5 mil €
Liquidez
161,9 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
23.0% / 24.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
24 abr 26, 19:15 UTC31 ene 28, 13:25 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Recession this year?
KalshiUS recession by end of 2027?
PolymarketWhich countries will have a recession before 2027?
KalshiWill the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExReglas
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
- GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 91 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 569,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 47,4 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 359,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 16,4 mil €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 18,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,3 mil €
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Recession in 2027??
- Kalshi cotiza No al 76% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Recession in 2027??
- Está previsto que Recession in 2027? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Recession in 2027??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.