Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.7%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado30 mar 25, 18:54 UTC31 mar 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
