Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.2%
Pronosticadores
53
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado30 mar 25, 18:53 UTC31 mar 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,6 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 554,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 33,8 mil €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volumen total
- 314,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 11 mil €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 17,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 76 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US experience a recession during 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US experience a recession during 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the US experience a recession during 2026? se resuelva el 31 de marzo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US experience a recession during 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.