LimitlessComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos verificados limitadosProbabilidad implícita actualSí 10.9%
Calidad del mercado
28 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
0 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
-
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 minutos
7 ene 26, 16:441 feb 27, 4:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes11%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h
También disponible en Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5m
88.4%
11.6%
Pronóstico comunitario134 pronosticadoresTipo: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
También disponible en Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
6m
88%
12%
52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media
Volumen total1,5 M €
Volumen 24h335,9 €
POLYMARKETReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$0.006 jul21d de datos26 jul
Activos Sensibles al Macro
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product