KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualQ4 2024 0%Líder entre 6 opciones
Calidad del mercado
24 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
1,5 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
0.2% / 0.5%
Spread
150.0%
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
19 mar 25, 14:0031 dic 26, 15:00
Tendencias
0%
0%
Resultado elegido
Q2 20251%
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
US recession by end of 2026?
2,7 mil €Sí: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
792,6 €5.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
259,9 €Sí: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
134,5 €4.3%: 38%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
134,1 €2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KALSHI
KALSHIWill Nigeria have a larger GDP than South Africa in 2026?
80,4 €Sí: 47.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Reglas
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.