KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Q1 2026 1%-0.1ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Calidad del mercado
60 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
10 €
Liquidez
154,3 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
2.7 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
19 mar 25, 14:00 UTC31 dic 26, 15:00 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 97,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,8 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 702,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 91 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 400 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 34,5 mil €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,9 mil €
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi cotiza Q1 2026 al 1% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the next US recession start??
- Está previsto que When will the next US recession start? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.