Probabilidad implícita actual
Soft Landing 62%+3.5%Líder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
79 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
1,5 mil €
Liquidez
13,3 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
61.0% / 62.0%
Spread
1.6%
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
+19.0%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
24 abr 26, 21:4931 ene 27, 0:00
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Soft Landing62%
Comparar plataformas· Soft landing
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketEsta páginaMejor en general | Alta | 62% | 0pt | 1,5 mil € | 13,3 mil € | hace 5 minutos | |
 Kalshi93% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 62% | 0pt | 925 € | 21 mil € | hace 25 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Kalshi
State of the economy at the end of 2026
2.3%5m
+2.3%62%
-5.5%20%
12%
+1 resultados más
52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total45,3 mil €
Volumen 24h925 €
KALSHIReglas
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$1.7k2 jul24d de datos26 jul
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The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.