Probabilidad implícita actual
Soft Landing 48.5%-8.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
46 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
527,4 €
Liquidez
3,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
11.0 pt
Spread amplioComentarios
5
Cambio 7d
-11.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
24 abr 26, 21:49 UTC31 ene 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US economic recession in 2026?
FutuurWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketReglas
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “the named outcome (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Kalshi — State of the economy at the end of 2026 · Soft landing 58%
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 91 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 569,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 47,4 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 359,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 79,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 18,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,3 mil €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Polymarket cotiza Soft Landing al 48% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que US economic state at the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- ¿Dónde más está listado US economic state at the end of 2026??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Kalshi.