Inflation

Fed Decision in July?

No change

+5.5%79%

25 bps increase

-5.9%20%

50+ bps increase

+2 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmNo change79%· ±0 pts

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total93,3 M US$

Volumen 24h2 M US$

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

1.0%4m

Sí

-0.0%71%

+0.0%30%

100 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total4,7 M US$

Volumen 24h44,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

4.0%17d

Above 3.0%

-5.0%92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total542,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h10,8 mil US$

KALSHI

Fed rate hike by which date?

4.2%3m

October Meeting

+0.5%69%

September Meeting

61%

July Meeting

-4.2%20%

+2 resultados más

100 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,5 M US$

Volumen 24h5,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

CPI in July

1.0%17d

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

-7.0%88%

+7 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total277,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h5,3 mil US$

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Annual

0.5%16d

3.3%

-1.0%37%

3.4%

37%

3.5%

20%

+9 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total104,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h5,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

How high will inflation get this year?

2.9%6m

At least 4.0%

100%

At least 4.5%

-2.9%35%

At least 5.0%

21%

+4 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total591,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,7 mil US$

KALSHI

US gasoline CPI for July

17d

Above 320ㅤ

99%

Above 300ㅤ

96%

Above 310ㅤ

96%

+24 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread desconocidoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total104,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,2 mil US$

KALSHI

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

1.0%4d

Above 0.0%

97%

Above 0.1%

-1.0%71%

Above 0.2%

-1.0%4%

+2 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithm≤0.0%98%· ±95 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total106,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,1 mil US$

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Monthly

3.0%16d

≥0.1%

+3.0%68%

0.0%

26%

-0.1%

-0.3%7%

+6 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total48,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.9%5m

2 (50

-0.5%33%

0 (0

+1.0%30%

1 (25

30%

+3 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total55,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17d

Exactly 3.3%

34%

Exactly 3.4%

31%

Exactly 3.5%

25%

+23 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total169,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h559,1 US$

KALSHI

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

+28.5%52.3%

Republican president, <2%

-4.5%23.2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

-10.3%14.9%

+5 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will CPI get this year?

21.0%5m

Above 4.1%

99%

Above 3.8%

93%

Above 3.9%

93%

+10 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total110,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h445 US$

KALSHI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

1.5%6m

Soft Landing

+1.5%60%

Overheating

+2.0%26%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±2 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total55,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.4%5m

Soft landing

+2.4%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmSoft landing62%· ±2 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total51,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,1 mil US$

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17d

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total68,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h494,7 US$

KALSHI

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

32.0%5m

Above 6.5%

100%

Above 6.6%

97%

Above 6.7%

77%

+3 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total61,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h429,9 US$

KALSHI

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

28.0%4d

↑ $4.00

+41.5%100%

↑ $3.90

+15.4%100%

↑ $4.25

-28.0%8%

+8 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total9,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

8.0%5m

4.00% to 4.49%

+7.5%42%

4.50% to 4.99%

+8.0%22%

3.50% to 3.99%

-4.0%19%

+5 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total46,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h601,2 US$

POLYMARKET

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

2.1%5m

4.1-4.4%

+0.6%31%

3.8-4.1%

-1.4%18%

3.2-3.5%

+0.8%9%

+7 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total30,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h278,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

1.0%16d

2.4%

+11.0%48%

2.5%

-1.0%24%

≤2.2%

-0.1%13%

+7 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total17,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h400 US$

POLYMARKET

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

1.0%17d

Exactly -0.2%

88%

Exactly 0.1%

29%

Exactly 0.0%

-1.0%28%

+7 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total14,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h445,1 US$

KALSHI

US Core PCE (June 2026)

0.0

98%

0.1

67%

0.4

+2 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithm≤0.0%98%· ±95 pts

68 • Calidad mediaSpread desconocidoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total457 US$

Volumen 24h457 US$

ROTHERA

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%

+2.4%34%

2.5–2.9%

+0.3%22%

4.0-4.4%

-1.0%9%

+6 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total13,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h557,4 US$

POLYMARKET

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)

+1.2%99%

$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)

-1.0%0.3%

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

-0.1%0.2%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario30 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

1.0%1a

80%

Sí

+1.0%20%

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total25,9 M US$

Volumen 24h0,2 US$

KALSHI

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.1%5m

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

1.1 – 1.5%

43%

1.6 – 2.0%

+0.2%8%

+6 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total61,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h119,6 US$

POLYMARKET

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

1.0%4m

72%

Sí

+1.0%28%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total37,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h234 US$

KALSHI

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

y ≥ 2.0%

100%

y ≥ 2.5%

100%

y ≥ 3.0%

100%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Silicon Data

+3.4%44%

Ornn

-1.8%23.8%

SemiAnalysis

-0.8%12.2%

+5 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Alphabet

+6.6%95.4%

NVIDIA

94.6%

Microsoft

+5.7%90.2%

+4 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Sí

56.3%

43.7%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will inflation get in 2026?

0.5%5m

Above 3%

+1.4%100%

Above 4%

+2.0%100%

Above 3.5%

+0.1%100%

+5 resultados más

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,3 M US$

Volumen 24h6,3 US$

POLYMARKET

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17d

Exactly 2.4%

38%

Exactly 2.5%

26%

Exactly 2.3%

+4.0%12%

+13 resultados más

60 • Calidad mediaSpread desconocidoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total604,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h28 US$

KALSHI

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Sí

80%

20%

Pronóstico comunitario144 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

1.6%5m

5.00-5.49%

-0.1%39%

4.50-4.99%

26%

5.50-5.99%

-1.6%12%

+7 resultados más

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total77 mil US$

Volumen 24h40 US$

POLYMARKET

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

96.7%

Sí

3.3%

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

1.0%17d

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

20%

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.1% or below

14%

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

13%

+12 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total71,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h11 US$

KALSHI

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

100%

He leaves Argentina during his first term

100%

He travels to Chile during his first term

100%

+67 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario162 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

84.2%

Sí

15.8%

Pronóstico comunitario50 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

7.3%16d

0.2%

34%

0.1%

26%

0.3%

-0.1%25%

+4 resultados más

49 • Baja calidadSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total61,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

16d

$2.00–$2.25

81%

$2.25–$2.50

12%

$1.75–$2.00

+7 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total15,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h20 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

73a

Sí

79.3%

20.7%

Pronóstico comunitario58 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will South Africa collapse?

23a

After 2050

50%

Before 2050

48.8%

Before 2045

45%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario22 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

CPI-U index in July

2.0%17d

Above 335.8

98%

Above 333.6

88%

Above 334.0

55%

+9 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total51,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h2 US$

KALSHI

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

2.0%1m

Above 3.0%

97%

Above 3.1%

+1.0%96%

Above 3.2%

+6.0%95%

+23 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total15,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h82 US$

KALSHI

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

0.1%5m

30.0-34.9%

+0.1%42%

25-29.9%

+0.5%36%

35–39.9%

+0.3%6%

+4 resultados más

71 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total27,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h12,5 US$

POLYMARKET

Criptoactivos Relacionados

Fed Decision in July?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Fed rate hike by which date?

CPI in July

July Inflation US - Annual

How high will inflation get this year?

US gasoline CPI for July

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

July Inflation US - Monthly

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

How high will CPI get this year?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

US Core PCE (June 2026)

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

China Annual Inflation 2026

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

When will South Africa collapse?

CPI-U index in July

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026