AI | Mercados de Predicción

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17d

Anthropic

+3.4%89%

Google

-1.0%10%

OpenAI

-0.4%3%

+16 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total13,5 M US$

Volumen 24h189,7 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6m

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+1.3%96%

↑$1.25T

+1.0%90%

+10 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,5 M US$

Volumen 24h107,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17d

Anthropic

-1.5%91%

Google

OpenAI

+0.3%2%

+16 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,7 M US$

Volumen 24h20,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6m

December

+4.5%49%

September 30,

+1.0%12%

August

+1.9%5%

+3 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total2 M US$

Volumen 24h18,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17d

No IPO by June 30, 2026

99%

<100B

100–200B

+4 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,7 M US$

Volumen 24h5,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,

90%

October 31,

69%

September 30,

16%

+3 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total272,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h6,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Anthropic

81%

Google

-0.3%9%

OpenAI

-0.2%7%

+23 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total93,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h6,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1m

July 31

-1.1%96%

June 30

+3.0%92%

June 23

-2.0%54%

+6 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total889,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h19 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17d

Anthropic

-0.1%96%

OpenAI

-0.1%3%

xAI

+0.3%1%

+26 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total65,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h7,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6m

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-6.0%51%

750B–1T

-0.1%13%

1T–1.25T

+1.6%12%

+4 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,8 M US$

Volumen 24h5,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6m

Sí

+0.0%8%

-0.0%92%

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1 M US$

Volumen 24h12,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6m

↑$900B

89%

↑$1.0T

+1.0%81%

↑$1.25T

+10.0%79%

+12 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total623,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h9,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4h

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+7.1%88%

Other

-9.4%9%

claude-opus-4-6

-0.1%0%

+3 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total158,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h28,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17d

Anthropic

-1.0%87%

Google

+4.5%11%

OpenAI

+0.7%3%

+16 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total596,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1a

600B+

+1.5%95%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

300–400B

+0.3%1%

+4 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total356,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17d

June 23

+7.5%27%

No release by June 30

-0.3%18%

June 30

14%

+27 resultados más

77 • Alta calidadSpread desconocidoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total109,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h5,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15d

June 22–June 28

-0.4%56%

June 15–June 21

+7.0%30%

Not released by June 28

-6.1%12%

+5 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total148,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h5,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17d

Anthropic

+1.5%89%

Google

OpenAI

-0.9%2%

+26 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidez

Volumen total98 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17d

Alibaba

-3.0%80%

Z.ai

+2.0%18%

Moonshot

+3.7%5%

+22 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total40,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h6,7 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1a

$2.5–$2.75T

-0.5%16%

$1.25–$1.5T

-0.5%16%

<$1.25T

+5.5%14%

+7 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total19,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h10,7 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17d

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

+1.8%5%

DeepSeek

+8 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,6 M US$

Volumen 24h1,7 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18d

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total377,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17d

Google

-7.0%49%

Anthropic

+2.0%29%

OpenAI

+3.0%17%

+26 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total202,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

<30%

0.9%

30-40%

0.9%

40-50%

0.9%

+5 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario38 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total94,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h44,4 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18d

↑$850B

-14.5%39%

↓$800B

+1.3%31%

↑$875B

-4.0%20%

+9 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total197,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1a

1.8T+

-0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

-0.5%18%

1.5–1.8T

-0.1%18%

+4 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total147,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19d

Perplexity

3.4%

Anthropic

1.1%

Mistral

2.9%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario48 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total151,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,3 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6m

Sí

+0.0%98%

-0.0%2%

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total63,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,4 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1m

July 31

-1.4%95%

June 30

84%

June 26

+0.5%68%

+3 resultados más

61 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total51,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h6,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6m

2026

-3.0%22%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez media

Volumen total2,9 M US$

Volumen 24h2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1m

Anthropic

-1.5%65%

Google

+7.0%20%

OpenAI

-3.0%7%

+23 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total7,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1m

Anthropic

-10.0%66%

Google

+12.0%22%

OpenAI

+2.0%6%

+23 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total8,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump bans abortion nationwide

4.4%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

1.6%

+248 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario1,631 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total1 M US$

Volumen 24h479,2 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17d

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

-6.5%58%

+2 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total342,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

ARC-AGI

13%

FrontierMath

5.7%

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

48.1%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total9,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h6,5 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17d

June 30

+0.7%92%

June 19

-4.0%18%

June 12

-1.6%2%

+4 resultados más

79 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total301,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic

67%

Google

+2.0%18%

OpenAI

-1.0%10%

+23 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total7,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h812,2 US$

POLYMARKET

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Earbuds/Headphones

+2.5%32%

Clip-on device for clothing

+0.5%21%

Glasses

19%

+7 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total308 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1a

Anthropic

-0.1%76%

OpenAI

+0.1%24%

79 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez media

Volumen total158,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1m

Anthropic

+0.5%78%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

+0.5%6%

+23 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total6,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,4 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19d

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario592 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total364,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h350 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Kill everyone - Liron

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

8.8%

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

34.5%

+36 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario301 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total72 mil US$

Volumen 24h25 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6m

None in 2026

-1.0%70%

Anthropic

-2.0%21%

OpenAI

+1.7%6%

+29 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total78,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h436,6 US$

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17d

Anthropic

+0.5%86%

Google

-2.5%9%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6m

ChatGPT

-1.1%15%

Claude

-0.6%67%

Gemini

-3.1%12%

+4 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total54,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h500,8 US$

KALSHI

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

11.4%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

100%

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

45.3%

+148 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario187 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total73 mil US$

Volumen 24h351,6 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Google

56%

OpenAI

35%

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6m

Anthropic

-0.1%61%

OpenAI

+0.1%39%

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total27,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

IA

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Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

OpenAI IPO by...?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

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Which company has best AI model end of July?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

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Which company has second best AI model end of June?

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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

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Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

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Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

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Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

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