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Actualizado hace 8 minutos
31 ago 26, 5:41 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?
- The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free.
- I'll try to resolve in this spirit.
- Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count.
- Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 71% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Está previsto que Rogue AIs before 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?