PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
60%+ · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Referencia guardada
60%+ 94%Líder entre 5 opciones
60%+ 94%Calidad del mercado
65 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
28,5 mil €
Liquidez
3,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaInterés abierto
11,8 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
60%+Spread
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Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 minutos
28 oct 26, 22:20 UTC1 jul 27, 3:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 0,1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- No
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · 60%+
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
