PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
50%+ · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Referencia guardada
50%+ 91%Líder entre 4 opciones
50%+ 91%Calidad del mercado
60 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
2,7 mil €
Liquidez
3,2 mil €
Liquidez mediaInterés abierto
4,2 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
50%+Spread
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Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
22 oct 26, 20:37 UTC1 jul 27, 3:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 0,1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- No
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · 50%+
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Manifold MarketsDoes Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
