Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.3%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado1 jul 25, 21:48 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the model weights for Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus are publicly available by December 31, 2030. "Publicly available" means that the complete model weights are accessible to the general public without significant restrictions, such as - Through an official release by Anthropic - A public torrent of a leak of the weights
- A "significant restriction" would be something like "X anon on Discord has a copy of the weights but is only providing them to close friends" or "You must go through XYZ 2-month approval process by Anthropic to receive access"
- Additional constraints: - It must be available for at least 7 days, but the market tracks the start date.
- So if it's available for 7 days starting December 30th, this will resolve YES.
- But if it was only ever available for 1 hour on Jan 12th 2027, and nobody made a known public reupload, the market would resolve NO - If the model architecture is particularly unconventional, associated inference code must be available, such that the knowledge of how to run the model isn't gate-kept
