Science | Mercados de Predicción

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

24%

Before 2028

17%

Before 2027

+6 resultados más

100 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidez

Volumen total33,3 M US$

Volumen 24h41,8 mil US$

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

December 31

September 30

-0.1%3%

April 30

+3 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total63,6 M US$

Volumen 24h25,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

1.1%5m

66%

Sí

+1.1%34%

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total213,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h12,2 mil US$

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

1.0%5m

94%

Sí

-1.0%6%

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total314,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,6 mil US$

KALSHI

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5m

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

+1.0%54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total325,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,7 mil US$

KALSHI

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

1.0%5d

Aalo Atomics

99%

Antares Nuclear

96%

Valar Atomics

94%

+7 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total305,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,5 mil US$

KALSHI

Total space launches in July

9.0%12d

Above 13

+1.0%94%

Above 14

-9.0%16%

Above 15

-1.0%2%

+5 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total70,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h13,4 mil US$

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

74.3%

Sí

25.7%

Pronóstico comunitario138 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

0.5%5m

-1.0%55%

+0.5%42%

+3 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total3,2 M US$

Volumen 24h550 US$

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

12.0%5d

Above 100

+1.0%99%

Above 25

99%

Above 50

99%

+8 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total56,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,3 mil US$

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5m

96%

Sí

-0.3%4%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,6 M US$

Volumen 24h209 US$

KALSHI

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

0.7%5m

89%

Sí

-0.7%11%

Referencia CoinRithm11%· ±8 pts

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total697,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h158 US$

KALSHI

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

12.3%12h

+11.0%37%

+12.0%35%

+4.5%21%

+5 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total24,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h4,4 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13a

75%

Sí

25%

Pronóstico comunitario2217 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

94%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

90.3%

Sí

9.7%

Pronóstico comunitario18 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

12.0%12h

+12.0%90%

-10.5%11%

-2.4%1%

+4 resultados más

79 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total7,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Is Earth flat?

98%

Sí

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total51,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h101,1 US$

POLYMARKET

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

1.0%4m

Above 0

+1.0%81%

Above 1

-5.0%65%

Above 2

-1.0%41%

+5 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total56,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h581,1 US$

KALSHI

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

93.8%

Sí

6.2%

Pronóstico comunitario57 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1.0%6a

Oil

-1.0%62%

Coal

13%

Gas

+7 resultados más

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total131,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h188,7 US$

KALSHI

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario28 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Sí

96%

Pronóstico comunitario999 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175a

88.1%

Sí

11.9%

Pronóstico comunitario75 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5m

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total115,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h118,7 US$

KALSHI

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

81.7%

Sí

18.3%

Pronóstico comunitario73 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

0.5%5m

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+1.5%63%

Ethiopia

53%

+10 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total29,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Gauss

-1.8%58.7%

Archimedes

+1.5%21.7%

Euler

+0.1%4.8%

+50 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario191 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

5.0%5m

69%

Sí

-5.0%31%

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total16,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,8 mil US$

KALSHI

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23a

2027

99.4%

2028

99%

2029

99%

+12 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario38 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

24a

61.9%

Sí

38.1%

Pronóstico comunitario26 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

58%

Sí

42%

Pronóstico comunitario88 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

6.0%5m

+0.1%78%

Sí

-0.1%22%

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidez

Volumen total228 mil US$

Volumen 24h795,2 US$

POLYMARKET

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

95.4%

Sí

4.6%

Pronóstico comunitario56 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

6.0%2m

<4m

+2.5%23%

4.2-4.4m

16%

4.4-4.6m

-1.1%16%

+4 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total63,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h987,6 US$

POLYMARKET

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

66.5%

Sí

33.5%

Pronóstico comunitario34 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

94.8%

Sí

5.2%

Pronóstico comunitario23 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario141 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

91.2%

Sí

8.8%

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

94.6%

London, England, UK

94.5%

San Francisco, California, US

94.5%

+11 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario3 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Sí

54.5%

45.5%

Pronóstico comunitario249 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

61.7%

Sí

38.3%

Pronóstico comunitario242 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165a

88%

Sí

12%

Pronóstico comunitario127 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

73a

83.7%

Sí

16.3%

Pronóstico comunitario48 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Sí

90.2%

9.8%

Pronóstico comunitario22 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

13a

62.5%

Sí

37.5%

Pronóstico comunitario92 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

18a

Sí

50.3%

49.7%

Pronóstico comunitario471 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ciencia

Criptoactivos Relacionados

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Total space launches in July

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Is Earth flat?

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will I live to be 200 years old?

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?