Science | Mercados de Predicción

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

3.0%6m

December 31

-3.0%11%

September 30

June 30

-0.1%1%

+3 resultados más

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total52,2 M US$

Volumen 24h1,4 M US$

POLYMARKET

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Sí

20.8%

79.2%

Pronóstico comunitario149 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total187,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,8 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.0%6m

+1.5%63%

-3.0%28%

+0.1%5%

+3 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total2,9 M US$

Volumen 24h4 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.3%6m

Before 2027

+0.3%14%

Before July 2026

-1.0%1%

Before Jan 20, 2029

27%

+2 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total257,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,2 mil US$

KALSHI

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.3%6m

Sí

95%

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total635,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

0.3%6m

11–13

+2.0%36%

14–16

+0.5%36%

17–19

-2.0%17%

+4 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,3 M US$

Volumen 24h590,2 US$

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

1.3%18d

≤8

+2.5%49%

-5.0%25%

15%

+4 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total106 mil US$

Volumen 24h747,4 US$

POLYMARKET

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Sí

80%

20%

Pronóstico comunitario402 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total206,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h342,8 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Sí

57.7%

42.3%

Pronóstico comunitario689 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total660 mil US$

Volumen 24h193,2 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

🇨🇦 Canada

23.9%

🇬🇱 Greenland

15.3%

🇮🇸 Iceland

15.3%

+11 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario3 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total2,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,2 mil US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1.2%18d

2nd hottest

+2.0%86%

3rd hottest

+0.6%8%

1st hottest

-1.2%6%

+1 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total38,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h234,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

1.4%3m

<4m

+4.0%50%

4.0-4.2m

+1.4%27%

4.2-4.4m

-0.5%13%

+4 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total54,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h109,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

0.1%18d

Sí

98%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total31 mil US$

Volumen 24h128,9 US$

POLYMARKET

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

19d

432 or less

0.4%

432.0001-432.25

0.4%

432.2501-432.5

95.2%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total10,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h980 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

Sí

96.1%

3.9%

Pronóstico comunitario10 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total6,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h500 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I make IMO in 2028

Sí

39.5%

60.5%

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total1,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h303,7 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Sí

96%

Pronóstico comunitario996 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total10,3 M US$

Volumen 24h90 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

0.5%6m

Sí

+0.0%6%

94%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total119,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h15,7 US$

POLYMARKET

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Sí

41.9%

58.1%

Pronóstico comunitario85 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total22,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h105 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Sí

53.4%

46.6%

Pronóstico comunitario50 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total13,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h104,7 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1%9m

+2.0%67%

21%

+0.3%5%

+3 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,1 M US$

Volumen 24h2,1 US$

POLYMARKET

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

0.5%1m

Hong Wang

-0.5%83%

John Pardon

+0.5%65%

Jacob Tsimerman

-4.5%62%

+8 resultados más

71 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoLiquidez media

Volumen total532,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h65,3 US$

POLYMARKET

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

10m

Sí

20.2%

79.8%

Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total3,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h200 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.1%6m

Sí

94%

60 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total224,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h91,5 US$

POLYMARKET

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sí

51%

49%

Pronóstico comunitario29 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total1,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h215,4 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

18d

Sí

98%

49 • Baja calidadSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total120,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Sí

10%

91%

40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total95,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

Megaquake by June 30?

1.0%18d

Sí

+0.0%8%

-0.0%92%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total78,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,4 US$

POLYMARKET

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.2%6m

Sí

+0.2%3%

97%

60 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total13,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h38,4 US$

KALSHI

Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST

Sí

52.9%

47.1%

Pronóstico comunitario17 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total866,4 US$

Volumen 24h308,5 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

0.5%6m

Sí

+0.0%25%

76%

28 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total222,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h32,1 US$

POLYMARKET

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%6m

Uganda

+37.5%100%

Kenya

+19.5%78%

South Sudan

+2.5%67%

+10 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total14,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h69,4 US$

POLYMARKET

Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?

Sí

30%

70%

Pronóstico comunitario3 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total2,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h109 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze

55.7%

At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver

58.3%

At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold

60%

+28 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario76 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total8,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h21,7 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

March 2026

0.4%

April 2026

0.4%

May 2026

0.4%

+8 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total1,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h118,4 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23a

2026

2027

20.7%

2028

51.2%

+12 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario31 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

Volumen total5,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h87 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

2.9%6m

Sí

-2.9%15%

85%

71 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoLiquidez media

Volumen total6,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h37,9 US$

KALSHI

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

3.0%6m

Sí

+0.0%16%

-0.0%85%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total8,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,1 US$

POLYMARKET

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

2.5%6m

Sí

-0.0%8%

+0.0%92%

24 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total12,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h0 US$

POLYMARKET

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

$Sí$

Sí

82%

$No$

19%

49 • Baja calidadSpread estrechoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total5,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h12,2 US$

POLYMARKET

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Sí

74.8%

25.2%

Pronóstico comunitario12 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total2,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h57 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

2.0%6m

Kenya

+2.0%55%

Republic of the Congo

-5.0%10%

United States

23%

+14 resultados más

28 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total2,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h14,5 US$

KALSHI

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Sí

81.3%

18.7%

Pronóstico comunitario24 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total1,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h50 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

2.0%6m

Sí

+2.0%7%

93%

28 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total1,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h10 US$

KALSHI

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

5.0%1m

Antares Nuclear

+5.0%97%

Atomic Alchemy

-18.0%50%

Radiant Industries

10%

+7 resultados más

49 • Baja calidadSpread estrechoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo

Volumen total2,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,9 US$

KALSHI

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

Sí

33%

67%

Pronóstico comunitario12 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total656,6 US$

Volumen 24h71,6 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?

Sí

13%

87%

Pronóstico comunitario23 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total7 mil US$

Volumen 24h75 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

Sí

42%

58%

Pronóstico comunitario23 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

Volumen total5 mil US$

Volumen 24h61,9 US$

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ciencia

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

Will I make IMO in 2028

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Megaquake by June 30?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?

What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?