Society & Culture | Mercados de Predicción

Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)

Saint Lucia

93.1%

Niue

89.9%

Sri lanka

69.2%

+65 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario37 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

5% more men than women in the US by 2055?

28a

80.2%

Sí

19.8%

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Earth flat?

98%

Sí

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total51,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h101,1 US$

POLYMARKET

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

96.8%

Sí

3.2%

Pronóstico comunitario67 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

92.9%

Sí

7.1%

Pronóstico comunitario101 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

89.9%

Sí

10.1%

Pronóstico comunitario38 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Major news story in Jul 2026?

1.0%6d

At least 1

97%

At least 2

-1.0%8%

At least 3

-1.0%5%

+2 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total48,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h221 US$

KALSHI

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

52.1%

Sí

47.9%

Pronóstico comunitario3478 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will something happen in 2026?

Sí

95%

Pronóstico comunitario164 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2026?

Sí

94.4%

5.6%

Pronóstico comunitario39 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35a

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario13 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I burnout by the end of 2026?

75.5%

Sí

24.5%

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Destiny sue anyone?

54.5%

Sí

45.5%

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

95.4%

Sí

4.6%

Pronóstico comunitario62 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Sí

55%

45%

Pronóstico comunitario151 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

83.4%

Sí

16.6%

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

95.1%

Sí

4.9%

Pronóstico comunitario80 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165a

89%

Sí

11%

Pronóstico comunitario61 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

58%

Sí

42%

Pronóstico comunitario216 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

96%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario54 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Harry Kane Knighted in 2026

1.0%5m

82%

Sí

+1.0%18%

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total12,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h282,6 US$

KALSHI

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

62.7%

Sí

37.3%

Pronóstico comunitario101 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

94.1%

Sí

5.9%

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ]

93%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario102 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

81.2%

Sí

18.8%

Pronóstico comunitario118 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?

94.9%

Sí

5.1%

Pronóstico comunitario35 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

10a

Sí

55.4%

44.6%

Pronóstico comunitario96 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Donald Trump have gay sex?

95.2%

Sí

4.8%

Pronóstico comunitario49 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

APUSH cheater prop bets

gets in any kind of trouble

55.2%

has it p1

53.6%

is female

53.3%

+12 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario39 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

2028 or later

+0.6%73.6%

2027

-0.4%15.2%

2026

-0.2%7.9%

+1 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the One Piece manga reach over 1400 chapters?

Sí

88.6%

11.4%

Pronóstico comunitario82 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?

Sí

53.8%

46.2%

Pronóstico comunitario14 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

72.3%

Sí

27.7%

Pronóstico comunitario96 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Sí

94.6%

5.4%

Pronóstico comunitario97 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

90.9%

Sí

9.1%

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I major in math?

89.9%

Sí

10.1%

Pronóstico comunitario47 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

89.6%

Sí

10.4%

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Voynich manuscript be deciphered by 2030? 📖🔎⁉️

82.6%

Sí

17.4%

Pronóstico comunitario81 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen before King Charles III dies? [Add Answers!]

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

100%

Someone becomes a trillionaire

100%

The United Kingdom holds a general election

87.3%

+8 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario28 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bobby Fischer be discovered to still be alive before 2030?

98.4%

Sí

1.6%

Pronóstico comunitario29 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Caroline Ellison next job

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

57.6%

Fraudster

50%

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

50%

+10 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

93.6%

Sí

6.4%

Pronóstico comunitario7 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

7978a

Other

+0.1%16.5%

Elon Musk

+0.1%13%

Bill Gates

+0.3%12.5%

+97 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario1286 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

98.2%

Sí

1.8%

Pronóstico comunitario192 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any western country deny women the vote in the 21st century?

74a

75.4%

Sí

24.6%

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

77%

Sí

23%

Pronóstico comunitario40 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

10m

79%

Sí

21%

Pronóstico comunitario35 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Sí

62%

38%

Pronóstico comunitario43 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS