Health & Medicine | Mercados de Predicción

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5m

97%

Sí

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total17 M US$

Volumen 24h2,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

New pandemic in 2026?

94%

Sí

Referencia CoinRithm5%· ±2 pts

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total921,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h7,1 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Measles cases in 2026?

4.0%5m

Above 1500

99%

Above 1750

99%

Above 2000

99%

+5 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total816,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,9 mil US$

KALSHI

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5m

96%

Sí

Referencia CoinRithm4%· ±1 pts

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total669,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,9 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5m

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

+1.0%54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total325,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,7 mil US$

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

74.3%

Sí

25.7%

Pronóstico comunitario138 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

2.0%1m

Before 2027

-2.0%68%

Before November

55%

Before September

-2.0%24%

+1 resultados más

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total70,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,5 mil US$

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5m

96%

Sí

-0.3%4%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,6 M US$

Volumen 24h209 US$

KALSHI

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

1.0%5m

↑500

+0.1%100%

↑1k

+0.1%100%

↑2k

+0.2%100%

+7 resultados más

79 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total7,8 M US$

Volumen 24h344,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2

37.0%1m

Above 2.62 million

98%

Above 2.64 million

97%

Above 2.66 million

96%

+12 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total66,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h333 US$

KALSHI

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13a

75%

Sí

25%

Pronóstico comunitario2217 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

94%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

2.0%5m

58%

Sí

+2.0%42%

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total354,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h229,3 US$

KALSHI

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175a

88.1%

Sí

11.9%

Pronóstico comunitario75 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5m

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 resultados más

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total115,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h118,7 US$

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

1.0%11m

Before Jul 1, 2028

95%

Before Jan 1, 2028

+1.0%86%

Before Jan 1, 2029

85%

+2 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total25,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h318 US$

KALSHI

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

2.5%5m

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+1.5%63%

Ethiopia

53%

+10 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pts

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total29,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

81.7%

Sí

18.3%

Pronóstico comunitario73 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

3.0%5m

Above 4k

96%

Above 6k

94%

Above 8k

94%

+6 resultados más

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total16,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h478,6 US$

KALSHI

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Doesn’t work at all and never will

+11.7%62%

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

30%

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

-8.9%29.5%

+4 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario113 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

86.5%

Sí

13.5%

Pronóstico comunitario15 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

96.5%-97.49%

+2.5%25.7%

Below 94%

-2.5%22.8%

95.5%-96.49%

-2.4%22.2%

+2 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario7 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who will Trump announce as next FDA commissioner?

0.1%5m

No announcement by December 31

-6.7%17%

Kyle Diamantas

14%

Sara Brenner

-0.5%8%

+30 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmKyle Diamantas14%· ±6 pts

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total18,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h124 US$

POLYMARKET

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35a

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario13 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?

88.6%

Sí

11.4%

Pronóstico comunitario6 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?

1.0%5d

2200

+0.2%100%

2300

+5.8%100%

2350

+1.0%80%

+1 resultados más

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total55,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h444,8 US$

POLYMARKET

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165a

88%

Sí

12%

Pronóstico comunitario127 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165a

89%

Sí

11%

Pronóstico comunitario61 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

16a

60%

Sí

40%

Pronóstico comunitario188 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

98.8%

Sí

1.2%

Pronóstico comunitario44 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

52.7%

Sí

47.3%

Pronóstico comunitario99 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

119a

89.8%

Sí

10.2%

Pronóstico comunitario44 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?

2000-3999

+3.9%52.9%

4000-5999

+5.0%31%

1000-1999

-3.5%10%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario33 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

80.2%

Sí

19.8%

Pronóstico comunitario19 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pandemic in 2026?

95%

Sí

Referencia CoinRithm5%· ±2 pts

56 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total672,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h10,5 US$

KALSHI

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

0.2%5m

95%

Sí

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total17,9 mil US$

Volumen 24h184 US$

POLYMARKET

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

72.2%

Sí

27.8%

Pronóstico comunitario17 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

78.2%

Sí

21.8%

Pronóstico comunitario14 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

69.4%

Sí

30.6%

Pronóstico comunitario26 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 125 years old?

94a

86.4%

Sí

13.6%

Pronóstico comunitario42 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

90.9%

Sí

9.1%

Pronóstico comunitario90 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the death of Elon Musk be ketamine related?

18a

89.4%

Sí

10.6%

Pronóstico comunitario24 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

77.4%

Sí

22.6%

Pronóstico comunitario46 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

93%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

97%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario36 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?

96.6%

Sí

3.4%

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?

95.8%

Sí

4.2%

Pronóstico comunitario36 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS