Crime & Justice

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

0.9%5m

Raúl Castro

99%

John Brennan

42%

Letitia James

34%

+38 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total1,1 M US$

Volumen 24h8,1 mil US$

KALSHI

Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?

3.0%1m

December 31

-0.5%63%

October 31

-0.5%55%

August 31

-3.0%34%

+2 resultados más

89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1,3 M US$

Volumen 24h12,7 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Trump out as President before 2027?

1.0%5m

+0.0%94%

Sí

-0.0%7%

Referencia CoinRithm7%· ±0 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total10,3 M US$

Volumen 24h4,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Who will be arrested in 2026?

0.6%5m

John Brennan

36%

Mahmoud Khalil

+5.0%26%

James Clapper

23%

+21 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmJohn Brennan28%· ±8 pts

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total1 M US$

Volumen 24h1,6 mil US$

KALSHI

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

2.0%2a

81%

Sí

+2.0%19%

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total525,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h3,5 mil US$

KALSHI

Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?

2.5%5m

December 31

-2.5%19%

July 31

-0.4%3%

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total107,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h16 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Netanyahu be arrested?

3.0%5m

Before Jan 1, 2027

-3.0%6%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Before Oct 1, 2026

+1.0%3%

73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez

Volumen total99,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h15,3 mil US$

KALSHI

Maduro Prison Time?

1.2%1a

No prison time

-9.0%34%

60+

+1.5%31%

40–60

-0.8%11%

+2 resultados más

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total651,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

0.6%5m

-0.0%90%

Sí

+0.0%10%

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total508 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,6 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

98%

Sí

80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total2,5 M US$

Volumen 24h275,5 US$

POLYMARKET

Who will be arrested before 2027?

0.3%

Mahmoud Khalil

+17.0%42%

John Brennan

-1.0%28%

James Clapper

20%

+21 resultados más

Referencia CoinRithmJohn Brennan28%· ±8 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total223,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h448,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?

12.0%5m

Before Jan 1, 2027

+12.0%22%

Before Sep 1, 2026

+1.0%6%

61 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez media

Volumen total38,5 mil US$

Volumen 24h8 mil US$

KALSHI

"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

0.5%5m

Not revealed in 2026

-4.5%65%

Gwendolyn Beck

+0.1%12%

Ben Carson

+1.4%2%

+30 resultados más

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total16,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,2 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

2.5%5m

Sí

+0.0%71%

-0.0%30%

91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total691,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h869 US$

POLYMARKET

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

51%

Sí

49%

68 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total255 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,8 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Kim Kardashian: Pass the Bar Exam before 2027?

95%

Sí

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total71,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h1,4 mil US$

KALSHI

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

1.0%2a

Sí

+0.0%67%

-0.0%33%

Referencia CoinRithm62%· ±5 pts

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total72,2 mil US$

Volumen 24h478,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?

1.0%2m

+0.0%91%

Sí

-0.0%9%

64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución

Volumen total56,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h422 US$

POLYMARKET

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

1.5%5m

+0.0%95%

Sí

-0.0%6%

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total737,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h357,3 US$

POLYMARKET

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

1.0%5m

-0.0%91%

Sí

+0.0%10%

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total52 mil US$

Volumen 24h293,7 US$

POLYMARKET

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

0.1%5m

89%

Sí

11%

72 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidez

Volumen total143,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h100 US$

POLYMARKET

Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?

5.0%5m

-0.1%74%

Sí

+0.1%26%

52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total23,7 mil US$

Volumen 24h2,3 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?

95%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario96 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

92.9%

Sí

7.1%

Pronóstico comunitario101 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

79.1%

Sí

20.9%

Pronóstico comunitario63 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

52.1%

Sí

47.9%

Pronóstico comunitario3478 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Trump serve time?

Never

+0.1%90.4%

2030s

4.4%

2029

-0.1%4%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario2591 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario20 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Other

69.6%

2027

21.8%

2026

6.9%

+2 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario23 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

0.6%5m

+0.0%89%

Sí

-0.0%11%

60 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez media

Volumen total326,8 mil US$

Volumen 24h209 US$

POLYMARKET

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

33a

84.3%

Sí

15.7%

Pronóstico comunitario421 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?

97%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario23 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

96%

Sí

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total155,4 mil US$

Volumen 24h100 US$

POLYMARKET

"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

OpenAI

-40.0%10%

Anthropic

-40.0%10%

Google DeepMind

-40.0%10%

Pronóstico comunitario2 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Destiny sue anyone?

54.5%

Sí

45.5%

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?

4.5%5m

December 31

-4.5%48%

May 31

-0.9%0%

June 30

-0.2%0%

+1 resultados más

36 • Baja calidadSpread amplioBaja liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total90,3 mil US$

Volumen 24h347,6 US$

POLYMARKET

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

81.3%

Sí

18.7%

Pronóstico comunitario4 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?

2.4%5m

93%

Sí

-2.4%7%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaCerca de la resolución

Volumen total65,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h149,3 US$

KALSHI

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

7.2%1a

56%

Sí

+7.2%44%

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total59 mil US$

Volumen 24h152,6 US$

KALSHI

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

3.0%5m

Bill Clinton

59%

Prince Andrew

51%

Donald Trump

+3.0%48%

+15 resultados más

44 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total50,1 mil US$

Volumen 24h100,5 US$

KALSHI

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Sí

98.9%

1.1%

Pronóstico comunitario35 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

97.2%

Sí

2.8%

Pronóstico comunitario27 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andrew Tate spend more than 1 year in prison before 2027?

99%

Sí

Pronóstico comunitario44 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jonathan Ross (shooter of Renee Nicole Good) be in custody by the end of the year?

90.6%

Sí

9.4%

Pronóstico comunitario38 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Sam Altman be convicted of a felony by 2027?

93.6%

Sí

6.4%

Pronóstico comunitario48 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Diddy still be alive in 2030?

Sí

74.3%

25.7%

Pronóstico comunitario25 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027?

Sí

94.3%

5.7%

Pronóstico comunitario27 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton spend any time in prison in 2026?

94.8%

Sí

5.2%

Pronóstico comunitario16 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Criptoactivos Relacionados

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Who will be arrested in 2026?

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?

Will Netanyahu be arrested?

Maduro Prison Time?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?

"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Kim Kardashian: Pass the Bar Exam before 2027?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

When will Trump serve time?

AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Will SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

Will Destiny sue anyone?

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Will Andrew Tate spend more than 1 year in prison before 2027?

Will Jonathan Ross (shooter of Renee Nicole Good) be in custody by the end of the year?

Will Sam Altman be convicted of a felony by 2027?

Will Diddy still be alive in 2030?

Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027?

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton spend any time in prison in 2026?