PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 91%-1.0pt
Calidad del mercado
62 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
3 €
Liquidez
10,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
9
Cambio 7d
-2.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
8 jul 26, 1:15 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketPhoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiKanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
PolymarketWill Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.