PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 97%-0.1pt
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
16,1 €
Liquidez
538,2 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
2.3% / 4.6%
Spread
2.3 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
2 jul 26, 14:49 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?
KalshiViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
PolymarketPhoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
PolymarketBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsIs Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.