Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
IAOne-Off11m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 79%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado13 oct 24, 19:03 UTC12 oct 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?
PolymarketWill Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
KalshiBy the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?
KalshiReglas
In Machines of Loving Grace: How Machines Could Transform the World for the Better (October 11, 2024) Dario Amodei writes:
- What powerful AI (I dislike the term AGI) will look like, and when (or if) it will arrive, is a huge topic in itself.
- It’s one I’ve discussed publicly and could write a completely separate essay on (I probably will at some point).
- This question asks:
- Will Dario Amodei write and publish an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 11, 2027?
- I will refrain from participating in this market to avoid bias when judging the resolution.