By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

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Sí 67.2%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Actualizado hace 5 minutos

22 abr 24, 21:43 UTC28 dic 29, 7:59 UTC

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From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
"I’m truly talking about the near future here.
I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now.
But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray.
I think it could be near-term."

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By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

One-OffIA Tecnología Ciencia3a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 67.2%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 minutos

22 abr 24, 21:43 UTC28 dic 29, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Mercados Relacionados

Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.

Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

Polymarket

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Manifold Markets

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?

Kalshi

Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?

Manifold Markets

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Polymarket

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Manifold Markets

Reglas

From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
"I’m truly talking about the near future here.
I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now.
But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray.
I think it could be near-term."

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

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¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”??: Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 67% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”??: Está previsto que By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? se resuelva el 28 de diciembre de 2029.
¿Cómo se liquida By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

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