Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
GeopolíticaOne-OffIASalud y medicina10aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.1%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 48 minutos
Retrasado16 ago 26, 4:05 UTC31 dic 36, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).
- The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).
- Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:
- The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).
- Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.