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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. IA
  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IATecnologíaCienciaYearly23a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores

31

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 días

Desactualizado
11 ago 25, 16:111 ene 50, 22:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

202721%

Reglas

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$62,915.76+2.84%SolanaSOL$65.38+2.34%EthereumETH$1,659.26+2.18%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+2.03%BNBBNB$596.96+2.12%XRPXRP$1.12+1.00%

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Reglas

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.