Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
IATecnologíaCienciaYearly1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 81.1%
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54
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado27 ene 26, 22:23 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 63,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 63,6 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
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- Volumen total
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- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
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KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 27,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 81% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027??
- Está previsto que Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.