Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
IA4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%Pronosticadores
47
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado19 dic 23, 18:43 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
Manifold MarketsWill an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.
- If I believe with 90%+ confidence that one of these conditions has been met first, including in testing or training of an unreleased system, even if that capability is not available to the public, I will pick that as the winner.
- If the same system does more than one of them at the same time, and it is unclear which one came first, I will choose the one whose requirements I feel was most impressively exceeded, so as to pick one winner.
- If a model would be High risk under a definition, but is not due to mitigations taken, then that counts as high risk, even if all publicly available versions have mitigations in place.
- If we have no knowledge of any success of any such threshold by 1 Jan 2030, then that answer wins, to ensure this eventually resolves.
- The system that does this can be made by anyone, not only OpenAI.
