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Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

InflationOne-OffEconomía Equities2a

KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión

Probabilidad implícita actual

Sí 29%

Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad

Volumen 24h

1,4 €

Liquidez

1,7 mil €

Baja liquidez

Compra / Venta

29.0% / 30.0%

Spread

3.5%

Spread moderado

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 4 minutos

25 feb 26, 15:001 jul 28, 14:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes29%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Mercados Relacionados

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 4.0%: 79%

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 4.9%: 42%

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Above 2.2%: 99%

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Overheating: 48%

How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

June Inflation US - Annual

June Inflation US - Annual

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Reglas

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.